网络空间中情感扩散、信息级联与舆论偏差的内生影响效应研究--基于2015—2020年突发事件面板数据动态分析

Emotion Diffusion,Information Cascades,and Internet Opinion Deviation:A Dynamic Analysis Based on Emergency Events Panel Data from 2015 to 2020

为了探索情感扩散、信息差序级联以及舆论偏差之间动态影响机制,本文使用2015—2020年我国具有代表性的11起突发事件面板大数据,采用VAR(vector autoregression)模型、面板数据模型以及状态空间模型对情感扩散、信息差序级联和舆论偏差之间关系进行分析。研究结果发现:①情感扩散和信息差序级联对舆论偏差的冲击影响效应均较大,且情感扩散的影响大于信息差序级联的影响。②情感扩散的冲击和信息差序级联的自相关效应对信息差序级联具有显著滞后影响,情感扩散自相关效应和信息差序级联对情感扩散具有显著的滞后影响。③情感扩散对舆论偏差的边际影响效应大于信息差序级联的影响,情感扩散对信息差序级联的边际影响效应大于舆论偏差的影响。④情感扩散、信息差序级联和舆论偏差之间的相互影响效应,在不同人口统计学群体间存在差异。根据研究结论,可制定有针对性的情感引导、信息差序级联监管和舆论偏差纠正措施。

To determine the influence mechanism of Internet opinion deviation,this paper explores the related ideas of Internet opinion deviation.The paper uses China's emergency events panel data from 2015 to 2020 and the vector autoregressive(VAR)model,panel data model,and state-space model to analyze the relationship between emotion diffusion,information cascade,and Internet opinion deviation.The research results are as follows.First,the impact of emotion diffusion and information cascade on the bias of public opinion is significant,and the impact of emotion diffusion is greater than that of the information cascade.Emotion diffusion and the autocorrelation effect of the information cascade have a positive impact on the information cascade,and the autocorrelation lag effect of emotion diffusion and the information cascade have a significant impact on emotion diffusion.Second,the marginal effect of emotion diffusion on public opinion bias is significantly greater than that of the information cascade,that of emotion diffusion on information cascade is greater than that of the public opinion bias,and that of information cascade on emotional diffusion is greater than that of the public opinion bias.Third,the contribution rate of emotion diffusion to the fluctuation of public opinion bias is greater than that of the information cascade,and that of emotion diffusion to the fluctuation of information cascade is greater than that of the public opinion deviation.Finally,the interaction effects of emotion diffusion,information cascade,and public opinion bias vary in different demographic groups.Conclusions of the study show that it is possible to formulate related driving strategies and specific measures.