改革开放以来中国经济增长模式探析:生产要素视角的国际比较

Analysis of China’s Economic Growth Pattern Since the Reform and Opening-up: International Comparison from the Perspective of Production Factors

基于生产函数的研究框架,从要素视角出发测度1978—2017年中国生产要素对经济增长的贡献情况,对经济增长模式进行国际比较,研究结果显示:改革开放四十年,物质资本对中国经济增长贡献率达到56.2%,是经济增长的最主要动力;劳动力要素投入方面,劳动力数量、人力资本和工作强度贡献率分别为12.7%、10.8%和1.7%;全要素生产率贡献率则为18.6%。国际比较显示,中国物质资本对经济增长贡献率位于世界前列,劳动力要素贡献率正在由"数量红利"向"质量红利"转变,全要素生产率贡献仍处于较低水平。通过与主要经济体同期发展阶段比较发现,在人均GDP达到1万美元的国情下,提高全要素生产率水平是未来跨越中等收入陷阱的关键性因素。

Based on the research framework of the production function, the article measures the contribution of China’s production factor to economic growth since the reform and opening-up from the perspective of factors, and an international comparison is made on economic growth pattern. The research results show: During China’s 40 years of reform and opening-up, the contribution rate of physical capital to economic growth reached 56.2%, which is the main driving force of China’s economic growth;in terms of labor factor input, the contribution rates of labor force, human capital and work intensity were 12.7%, 10.8% and 1.7% respectively;the contribution rate of total factor productivity was 18.6%.International comparison shows that the contribution rate of China’s physical capital to economic growth is among the highest in the world, the contribution rate of labor factors is changing from a "quantitative dividend" into a "quality dividend", and the contribution rate of total factor productivity is still at a low level.By comparing the development stage with that of the major economies over the same period, it is found that under the national conditions with GDP per capita of $10,000, raising the level of total factor productivity is the decisive factor for crossing the middle-income trap in the future.