基于系统动力学的装配式建筑产业发展研究

Research on the Industry Development of Prefabricated Building Based on System Dynamics

为了更科学地对装配式建筑产业发展政策进行研究,从产业链发展的角度出发,构建了装配式建筑产业链发展的系统动力学模型。选取4个具有典型性的政策变量进行仿真模拟。结果显示:产业链资金投入的增加与提高政府投资建设项目预制装配率为短期强有效的激励政策,而企业税收优惠和装配式建筑购置贷款优惠是长期激励政策。结合模拟仿真结果,提出基于产业链发展趋势的政策制定建议。

In order to study the development policy of prefabricated building industry more scientifically,from the perspective of industrial chain development,the prefabricated building industrial chain development system dynamics model was established,and four typical policy variables were selected for simulation.The results show that:the increase of industrial chain capital input and the improvement of prefabricated assembly rate of government-invested construction projects are short-term strong and effective incentive policies;enterprise tax incentives and prefabricated building purchase loan incentives are long-term incentive policies.Combined with the simulation results,the policy formulation suggestions based on the development trend of the industrial chain are put forward.