基于SD模型的布拖县环境承载力仿真模拟研究

Simulation study of environmental carrying capacity in Butuo County based on SD model

在对环境承载力研究的基础上开展了基于SD模型的仿真模拟研究。通过设计不同情景发展方案,模拟预测了布拖县2019~2025年理论可承载人口规模。结果表明:(1)区域环境系统承载能力的主要制约因素是生态环境状态和粮食配给问题;(2)同步推进型发展模式优于其他发展模式。找好各方面协同发展的平衡点对于区域未来可持续发展战略规划具有重要意义。

On the basis of the study of environmental carrying capacity,a simulation study based on SD model was carried out.The theoretical population size of Butuo County from 2019 to 2025 was simulated and predicted by designing development schemes of different scenarios.The results show that:(1)The main factors restricting the carrying capacity of the integrated environmental system in Butuo County were the ecological environment state and food rationing;(2)The synchronous promotion development mode is better than other development modes.It is of great significance for the strategic planning of regional sustainable development to find the balance point of all aspects of coordinated development.