基于传染病模型应用于中美两国应对COVID-19的对比研究

Comparative study on coping with COVID-19 between China and USA based on application of infectious disease model

目的基于传染病模型结合COVID-19的发病特点及传播机制,使用Python建立传染病动力学模型,通过仿真揭示我国和美国在新型冠状病毒肺炎(新冠)疫情的防控手段上的差异性。方法研究数据分别源于国家卫生健康委员会疫情通报以及腾讯新闻提供的美国疫情实时数据,通过MATLAB采用最小二乘法计算出传染病模型具体参数,并结合我国实际出台的各项防控措施以及美国政府应对新冠病毒的具体方法,在仿真模拟过程中改变相应的模型参数值开展研究。结果模型仿真显示,我国的疫情防控较美国而言更加行之有效,感染系数由自然条件下的0.509降为0.126,大概在4月底疫情可得到控制;而美国疫情的感染系数却呈现上升趋势,疫情仍将大规模蔓延。通过计算中美两国随时间发展下R0值的各自变化,可以得出,我国的基本再生数R0值随着管控的进行最终降到1以下,而美国的基本再生数R0值并未呈现下降的趋势。结论以中美两国对待COVID-19疫情防控手段的不同为着手点,分情况开展仿真研究,揭示了我国疫情防控的有效性,中国的疫情防控策略对于全世界应对COVID-19具有良好的借鉴意义。

Objective Based on the infectious disease model combining with the pathogenesis and spreading mechanism of COVID-19, the dynamics model of infectious disease was established with Python. The differences in the measures of prevention and control of COVID-19 were displayed by simulation between China and the United States of America(USA).Methods The data for study were obtained from the epidemical notification of the National Health Commission and the real time epidemic data in USA supplied by Tencent News, respectively. The parameters of the infectious disease model were figured out according to the least square method with MATLAB for simulating study combined with the practical measures of prevention and control in China and USA. The study was carried out by change of relevant model parameters in the progress of simulation. Results The simulation of the model showed the more effective measures for epidemic prevention and control in China than in USA. In China, the infectious factor decreased from 0.509 to 0.126 under the natural conditions, and the epidemic was controlled by the end of April. While the infectious factor tended to increase in USA, and the epidemic kept mass spread. According to the changes of basic reproduction number(R0) followed by the time in both countries, R0 finally dropped to less than 1 with the development of management and control in China, and the R0 did not showed the decreasing trend in USA. Conclusions The differences in the epidemic measures for prevention and control in China and USA are the points for simulative study. The results show that the epidemic prevention and control is more effective in China than in USA,and the epidemic prevention and control strategy of China has a good reference value for globally dealing with COVID-19.