林业财政补贴政策对农户林业投资及其结构的影响分析——基于财政补贴的挤入与挤出效应视角

Analysis on the Influence of Forestry Financial Subsidy Policy on Farmers’Forestry Investment and Its Structure--Based on the Perspective of Crowd-in and Crowd-out Effect of Financial Subsidy

如何提高集体林区农户林业经营积极性和林业生产力水平,既关系到国家生态安全和改善农户生计的问题,也关系到集体林区林业集约化经营和可持续发展的问题。文章采用国家林业和草原局经济发展研究中心2003年和2007-2015年长期定点跟踪样本农户10年来的微观平衡面板数据,基于财政补贴的挤入与挤出效应视角和诱致性技术变迁理论,利用固定效应模型估计了林业财政补贴对林业投资及其结构的影响;进一步通过交互效应模型分别估计了劳动力成本和林业劳动力的调节效应。经验性结果表明:(1)林业财政补贴对农户林业投资产生显著的挤入效应,对劳动节约性资本的挤入效应强于对增产性资本的挤入效应;(2)劳动力成本上升强化了林业财政补贴对林业投资的挤入效应,但从资本异质性的视角来看,此调节效应存在显著差异;(3)林业投资与林业劳动力呈总体互补关系,但存在结构性替代;(4)劳动节约型资本与林业劳动力的结构性替代强化了林业财政补贴的挤入效应。根据研究结论,文章提出政策启示:一是继续实施林业财政补贴并提高补贴标准;二是实施差异化补贴,向劳动节约型资本支出占比高的农户倾斜。

How to improve rural households’incentives for forest management and increasing forestland productivity in collective forest regions is important for the national ecological security and also critical for improving rural households’livelihood and sustainable forest resource management in these regions.Using the unique long-term panel dataset collected by China National Forestry-Grassland Economics and Development Research Center of 2003 and 2007-2015 from the perspective from financial crowd-in or crowd-out and the theory of induced technological change,using fixed effect model to estimate the effects of forest fiscal subsidies on rural households’forest investment and its structure and furcher estimated the moderating effect of labor cost and forest labor by using the interaction effect model.The empirical results indicate that:(1)Forest financial subsidy has a significant crowding-in effect on farmers’forestry investment,and the crowd-in effect on labor-saving capital is stronger.(2)Higher labor cost intensifies the crowd-in effect of forest financial subsidies on forest investment,while there are significant differences of moderating effect by considering capital heterogeneity.(3)Gnerally speaking,there is a complementary relationship between forest investment and forest labor,while exists structural substitution.(4)Labor-saving capital and structural substitution of forest labor have enhanced the crowd-in effect of forest fianiacl subsidy.According to the empirical results,some policy implications are induced as follows:(1)Forest financial subsidies policy should be renewed and the subsidy should be at higher level.(2)The mixture subsidies levels should be taken for different types of forest resource managers.