摘要
基于我国31个省市2000—2017年的面板数据,运用tobit模型和门限回归,研究在创新驱动战略背景下,人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响效应,识别区域技术创新在其中的调节作用及门限作用。研究表明,就全国和东部地区而言,老龄化显著促进产业结构高级化,区域技术创新在老龄化对产业结构高级化的影响中表现出双门限效应,在产业结构合理化中表现出单一门限特征。对于中西部地区而言,区域技术创新在老龄化对产业结构"两化"的影响中均表现出单一门限特征,且只有当区域技术创新能力在一个特定的范围内,老龄化才会显著促进产业结构"两化"的发展。
Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017,Tobit model and threshold regression are used to study the effect of population aging on the upgrade of industrial structure under the background of innovation-driven strategy, and identify the moderating role and threshold effect of regional technological innovation. The research shows that, for the whole and the eastern region, the population aging has significantly promoted the advancement of industrial structure, regional technological innovation shows a double threshold effect in the impact of population aging on the advancement of industrial structure, while it only shows a single threshold feature when promoting the rationalization of the industrial structure. For the central and western regions, regional technological innovation has a single threshold in the impact of population aging on the advancement and rationalization of the industrial structure, and only when the regional technological innovation capability is within a specific range, population aging will significantly promote the development of the advancement and rationalization of the industrial structure.
作者
马红梅
杨月
Ma Hongmei;Yang Yue(School of Economics,Guizhou University;Center for the Development and Application of Marxist Economics of Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第9期52-62,共11页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“农村异质性劳动力内生资本与市民化互动机制研究——以西南民族地区为例”(71663012)
贵州省教育厅高校人文社科基地项目“贵州旅游业融入粤港澳大湾区协调发展及路径研究”(2019jd002)
贵州省2020年度哲学社会科学规划重点课题“‘十四五’时期贵州加快完善综合交通运输体系促进经济高质量发展研究”(20GZZD19)。
关键词
人口老龄化
产业结构升级
区域技术创新
门限回归
population aging
the upgrade of industrial structure
regional technological innovation
threshold regression
