大商所“订单+保险+期货”模式的成本收益研究

A Study on the Cost-benefit of Dalian Commodity Exchange’s“Order+Insurance+Futures”Model

为解决中国农产品转为市场化收购模式所带来的价格风险,2017年10月,中国开始探索“订单+保险+期货”模式。本文以大商所吉林云天化玉米价格险试点为例,研究该模式下合作社、龙头企业、保险公司、期货公司及大商所的成本收益情况。结果表明:在新模式下,合作社得益于大商所补贴,几乎无保费支出;龙头企业在该模式下面临期货与现货市场的双重亏损,但同时也获得稳定的农产品采购渠道,并可减少农产品流通环节成本;保险公司损益恒定,相当于期权中介,不承担风险;期货公司承担大部分风险,收益取决于自身风控能力;大商所以补贴费用为成本,手续费为收入,目前相关业务处于亏损状态。

In order to address the price risk brought by the transformation of Chinese farm products,An“Order+Insurance+Futures”model is proposed for further research in October 2017.This case analysis is to study the corn price insurance pilot project of Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE)’s Jilin Yuntianhua.The situation of the profits and losses of its cooperatives(leading enterprises,insurance companies,futures companies and DCE)are also further studied.The results show that under the“Order+Insurance+Futures”model,the cooperatives mainly benefit from the subsidies of DCE,with almost no premium expenditure cost,and their income is the spot market income or insurance claims.Even if the leading enterprise loses money in both futures and spot markets,it obtains stable agricultural product procurement channels and therefore cuts the cost.Moreover,the cost-benefit curve of the insurance company is a constant straight line,indicating that it is equivalent to an option intermediation.The futures company,whose income depends on its own risk control capabilities,bears most of the risks.Finally,DCE is currently in a loss position,and the subsidies are its cost,while the handling fee is the source of its income.