基于DEA和STIRPAT模型的山东省农业生态效率评价

Evaluation of Agro-Ecological Efficiency in Shandong Province Based on DEA and STIRPAT Models

为了促进区域农业的可持续发展,以1998—2017年山东省134个县(市、区)的面板数据为样本,采用考虑非期望产出的超效率SBM模型和STIRPAT模型等多种方法,对山东省农业生态效率的时空变化特征和影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:(1)1998—2017年,山东省农业生态效率呈现波动上升的趋势,但总体效率值偏低。(2)山东省农业生态效率地区间差异显著,空间集聚性逐渐减弱,空间分布由最初的高值区零星分布逐渐形成自西向东“低—高—低—高”的带状分布形式。(3)农民人均纯收入、第一产业占比与山东省农业生态效率呈显著正相关,机械化水平、人均播种面积、财政支农水平以及种植结构则主要呈负相关,其中,第一产业占比和财政支农在0.75分位点、种植结构在0.25,0.75分位点上对山东省农业生态效率的影响不显著。山东省农业生态效率总体转好,但水平较低,应因时因地制宜地采取措施提高区域农业生态效率。

In order to promote the sustainable development of regional agriculture,based on the panel data of 134 counties(cities,districts)in Shandong Province from 1998 to 2017,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of agro-ecological efficiency in Shandong Province were analyzed by using various methods such as super-efficient SBM model and STIRPAT model.The results showed that:(1)in 1998—2017,the agro-ecological efficiency of Shandong Province showed an upward trend in fluctuation,but the overall efficiency value was low;(2)the agro-ecological efficiency of Shandong Province was significantly different between regions,and the spatial agglomeration gradually weakened;the spatial distribution from the initial high value area sporadic distribution gradually formed from west to east‘low—high—low—high’zonal distribution;(3)farmers′per capita net income,primary industry share,mechanization level,per capita planting area,fiscal support level and planting structure had significant effects on agro-ecological efficiency in Shandong Province,the per capita net incomes of farmers and the proportion of primary industry were significantly positively correlated with the agro-ecological efficiency of Shandong Province,while the rest were mainly negatively correlated.The overall agricultural ecological efficiency of Shandong Province was better,but the level was low.Measures should be taken to improve the regional agricultural ecological efficiency according to the time and local conditions.