产业政策对企业业务变更决策的引导效应研究

The Guiding Effects of Industrial Policy on Firms'Business Change Decisions

从企业业务变更的政策引导作用视角研究国家宏观战略的微观实现路径。对3个“五年规划”以及我国上市公司2001-2015年数据进行研究,结果表明,宏观产业政策能有效地引导企业开拓新业务,退出和淘汰原有旧业务,并且政策引导淘汰旧业务的作用力比开拓新业务的作用力更强。特别是当企业的非主营为产业政策支持的行业时,企业开辟新业务和退出旧业务的动机更强。进一步从企业性质、企业规模、行业性质方面进行异质性分析的结果表明:民营企业对产业政策的反应比国有企业敏捷,其开发新业务的速度更快;规模较大企业进入新行业的概率和退出老旧行业的概率均大于中小规模企业;制造业企业比服务业企业能更快速地在新领域开展业务。

Based on the texts of three ″five-year plan″ and the data of China′s listed firms from 2001 to 2015, this paper investigates the implementation path of the national macro policy from the perspective of the policy guiding role in firms′ business changes. Results show that industrial policy can effectively guide firms to develop new businesses and existing old businesses, and the guiding role is stronger in existing old businesses. Moreover, firms whose other business are supported, are likely to entry and exit. Further tests show that the relationship between industrial policy and firms′ business change decisions varies with the firm heterogeneity. To be specifically, private firms respond faster to industrial policy than state-owned firms, large firms are more likely to enter new industries and exit the original industries than small and medium-sized firms, manufacturing firms likely enter new industries than service firms.