中国双向FDI动态协调发展及影响因素研究

Research on the Coordinated Development of China's Two-way FDI and Its Influencing Factors

基于溢出效应与竞争效应双重作用路径,探索双向FDI复合系统的协调演化机理,并运用耦合协调度评价模型和随机效应面板Tobit模型,分别测算双向FDI耦合协调水平的时空格局及影响因素。结果表明:2004~2017年省域双向FDI耦合协调度均值在0.08~0.54之间,由最初的严重失调逐步发展至中度协调阶段;区域耦合协调度存在差异性,整体上沿海地区耦合协调度高于内陆地区;经济增长、产业结构优化、技术进步是促进双向FDI耦合协调发展的关键,出口贸易和金融效率会产生抑制效应,能源消费对于分区域耦合协调度则产生不同的影响。

Based on the spillover effect and competition effect, this paper builts up the evolution mechanism to explore the two-way FDI system. And then, it investigates the spatial-temporal pattern and the influencing factors, respectively by the coupling coordination model of IFDI-OFDI and the Tobit panel model. Results show that the coordination degree from 2004 to 2017 is [0.08-0.54], which develops dynamically from the initial stage of serious maladjustment to the stage of moderate maladjustment. The two-way FDI cooperation in coastal areas promotes each other, and the coupling coordination is better. Economic growth, industrial structure optimization and technological progress are the key to promote the coupling coordinated. The positive impact of energy is limited, while the opening-up and financial efficiency will have a restraining effect.