基于先进标杆理念的二氧化碳减排潜力研究

Research on carbon dioxide reduction potential based on the advanced benchmarking concept

基于中国政府国家自主减排承诺到2030年的碳强度降低目标,从先进标杆理念出发,综合运用Ward层次聚类法、遴选法等方法构建了测算二氧化碳减排潜力的模型方法,即:先进标杆理念法。运用2005—2016年30个省份38个工业分行业数据,测算了各省份工业行业二氧化碳的减排潜力,并从工业总体、行业总体和区域聚类分组这三个方面分析减排潜力的差异和来源。研究认为:首先,从中国工业行业总体减排潜力来看,碳排放量的降低幅度可以达到18.62%,而工业碳排放强度的减排幅度将达到24.03%,比2005年累计下降70.03%,可以实现到2030年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放量比2005年下降60%~65%的目标;其次,从工业行业二氧化碳减排潜力可以看出,煤炭开采和洗选业、石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业、化学原料和化学制品制造业、非金属矿物制品业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、电力、热力生产和供应业这6个行业为二氧化碳减排潜力大的行业,石油和天然气开采、农副食品加工业、纺织业、造纸和制品业、有色金属冶炼及压延业、金属制品业等9个行业属于中等减排潜力行业;再次,从聚类分析的角度来看,山东、江苏、河南、陕西、辽宁、广东等11个省份具有较大的减排潜力;最后,测算发现,本研究方法能够较好地估测出各省工业行业碳减排潜力,为各省份科学测算工业行业二氧化碳减排潜力和减排指标的制定提供参考依据。

Based on the carbon intensity reduction target of the national independent emission reduction commitment by 2030 made by the Chinese government,and on the advanced benchmarking concept,this study constructed the model method of measuring carbon dioxide emission reduction potential by using the Ward hierarchical clustering method and the selection method,that is,the advanced benchmarking concept method.Using the data of 38 industrial sub-sectors in 30 provinces and municipalities from 2005 to 2016,the carbon dioxide emission reduction potential of the industrial sectors of each province or municipality was calculated,the differences and sources concerning the emission reduction potential were analyzed from the three aspects of total emission reduction potential,industry emission reduction potential,and regional clustering.The results showed that:First of all,from the perspective of the total emission reduction potential of China’s industrial sectors,the reduction of carbon emissions could reach 18.62%,while the reduction of industrial carbon emission intensity could reach 24.03%with a cumulative decrease of 70.03%from 2005.The target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60%~65%in 2030 compared to 2005 could be achieved.Secondly,from the industrial carbon dioxide emission reduction potential,it could be seen that six industries such as coal mining and washing,petroleum processing,nuclear fuel coking and processing,raw chemical material and chemical product manufacturing,non-metallic mineral product manufacturing,ferrous metal smelting and pressing,and electric power and heat power production and supply were classified as industries with high carbon dioxide emission reduction potential.Nine industries such as petroleum and natural gas extraction,food processing from agricultural products,textile manufacturing,paper and paper product manufacturing,non-ferrous metals smelting and pressing,and metal product manufacturing were classified as industries with medium emission reduction potential.Thirdly,from the perspective of cluster analysis,11 provinces,such as Shandong,Jiangsu,Henan,Shaanxi,Liaoning and Guangdong possessed high carbon dioxide emission reduction potential.Finally,through the above calculation results,the research method proposed in this paper can better estimate the carbon emission reduction potential of various provinces and industries,and can provide a reference for the scientific estimation of the carbon dioxide emission reduction potential of the industrial sectors and for the formulation of emission reduction tasks.