当前中国经济高质量发展动力的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Current Dynamics of China’s High-quality Economic Development

中国特色社会主义进入新时代的重大标志是经济从高速度增长转向高质量发展。基于2000—2019年经济高质量发展指标数据,采用多元线性回归分析方法,分别分析了投资、消费、出口两两协同和三者协同对经济高质量发展的影响,并利用指数平滑法对2021年经济高质量发展的动力进行预测,结果表明:两两协同发展中,出口和消费才是推动经济高质量发展的动力;三者协同发展,虽在一定程度上对经济高质量发展起到促进作用,但投资会有一定的抑制作用。同时预测2021年经济高质量发展的动力主要为消费,这为当前经济高质量发展提供了相关政策建议。

A major sign that socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era is that the economy has shifted from high-rate growth to high-quality development.Therefore,based on the data of high-quality economic development indicators from 2000 to 2019,this paper adopts multiple linear regression analysis method,analyze the influence of the synergy of investment,consumption and export and the synergy of the three on the high quality of the economy and uses exponential smoothing method to predict the driving force of high-quality economic development in 2021.The results show that investment,paired development,export and consumption are the driving forces for high-quality economic development.Although the coordinated development of the three plays a role in promoting high-quality economic development to a certain extent,the role of investment is not obvious.Meanwhile,it is predicted that consumption will be the main driving force for high-quality economic development in 2021,which provides relevant policy suggestions for promoting current high-quality economic development.