答非所问与市场反应:基于业绩说明会的研究

Irrelevant answers and market reaction:Evidence from performance briefings

对上市公司业绩说明会中投资者与管理层问答互动中管理层答非所问的现象进行了研究.本文以中小板和创业板上市公司召开的业绩说明会作为研究样本,利用文本分析方法对业绩说明会中管理层在回答投资者提问时答非所问的程度进行度量,进而实证分析了管理层的答非所问与市场反应和公司未来业绩表现之间的可能关联.结果发现:在控制其它因素之后,管理层的答非所问与市场反应之间呈现显著的负相关关系,即公司管理层的答非所问程度越高,随后公司股票的市场表现则就会越差,并且对于那些低分析师关注的公司尤为明显;而在公司未来业绩表现方面,管理层答非所问的程度越高,则公司未来的业绩表现则会越差.

This paper examines the phenomenon that corporate executives tend to give irrelevant answers during performance briefings.Transcripts of performance briefings of companies listed on the SME and CEM arecollected.Various textual analysis methods are used to measure the degree of management's irrelevant answersduring performance briefings;and then the relationship between irrelevant answers and market reaction/thecompany's future performance is examined.The results show that after controlling other factors,there is a significant negative correlation between irrelevant answers and market reaction.For companies followed by feweranalysts,this negative correlation is more significant.Our findings also illustrate that providing irrelevant answers negatively affects a company's future performance.