作战构想风险性评估模型

Operational Conception Risk Assessment Model

作战构想是制定作战方案、定下作战决心的依据,在任务规划中起着承上启下的作用,意义重大。针对构想风险难以定量分析的难题,基于作战构想的组成要素、战场情况分析研判数据,从周密性、机动、打击、防护等角度构建了作战构想风险性评估指标体系,并提出了对各个指标进行定量分析的评估模型。最后,采用实例对提出的方法进行了验证,结果表明,该方法可行有效,避免了定性分析中存在的主观性、模糊性等不足,为作战构想评估提供了新的思路和方法。

The operational concept is the basis for formulating operational schemes and making operational decisions.It plays an important role in supporting mission planning and is of great significance.Aiming at the problem that is difficult to quantitatively analyze the conception risk,based on the constituent elements of the operational concept and the battlefield situation analysis and judgment data,a risk assessment index system for the operational concept is established from the perspectives of thoroughness,mobility,strike,and protection etc.Evaluation model for quantitative analysis of each index is proposed.Finally,the proposed method is verified by an example.The results show that the method is feasible and effective,and avoids the shortcomings such as subjectivity and ambiguity in qualitative analysis.It provides new ideas and methods for the evaluation of operational concepts.