基于可变模糊优选模型的南昌市生态系统健康综合评价

Assessment of Urban Ecosystem Health of Nanchang Based on Variable Fuzzy Optimization Model

科学评价城市生态系统健康状况,对合理利用资源和促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。以快速城市化区域典型的南昌市为研究区,选取环境、经济、社会三个子系统构建评价指标体系,运用熵权法确定各指标权重,应用可变模糊优选模型对2009—2018年南昌市生态系统健康进行了深入分析。结果表明:南昌市生态系统健康指数趋向健康方向发展,由2009年的0.255 2上升至2018年的0.801 8;促使考察期内南昌市生态系统健康指数上升的有利因素包括人均公园绿地面积、人均GDP和人均道路面积等14项指标(VIP值>1);影响南昌市生态系统健康的不利因素有空气质量优良率、单位GDP能耗、人口自然增长率等10个指标。最后,针对南昌市生态系统健康出现的问题,提出合理化建议。

Scientific evaluation of urban ecosystem health is of great significance for the rational use of resources and regional sustainable development.Taking Nanchang as a case study area,we select three indexes to build an evaluation system,including environment system,economic system and social system.Each index weight is calculated with entropy-weight method.The variable fuzzy optimization model is used to analyze the ecosystem health of Nanchang from 2009 to 2018.The results show that:the ecosystem health index of Nanchang tends to develop in a healthy direction,rising from 0.2552 in 2009 to 0.8018 in 2018;the favorable factors that promoted the rise of Nanchang ecosystem health index during the study period include 14 indicators such as per capita park green land,per capita GDP and per capita area of roads(VIP>1);the adverse factors affecting the ecosystem health of Nanchang include 10 indexes such as the air qualification rate,energy consumption per unit of GDP,natural growth,etc.;finally,some reasonable suggestions are put forward to solve the problems existing in ecosystem health of Nanchang.