贸易成本对中国向新兴市场出口二元边际的影响研究

Influence of Trade Cost on Binary Margin of China’s Export to Emerging Market

为探究中国对新兴市场出口增长现状,从产品层面出发,测算了中国对新兴市场国家的集约边际和扩展边际,测算结果显示:中国对新兴市场的出口增长主要靠集约边际拉动,且一直处于稳定增长的状态。将中国对新兴市场的贸易成本分为运输成本、政策成本、信息成本、汇率成本和贸易伙伴的境内成本五大类,并细分为十一个变量,通过扩展的引力模型对其做实证分析,考察期为2004—2017年。结果显示,这五类贸易成本对二元边际的作用不同,对集约边际和扩展边际的影响也不同。基于此,研究提出应当完善运输设施建设,减少对外贸易阻力;加快自由贸易进程,提高对外开放水平;加强通信设施建设,提高信息沟通水平;扩大国际金融合作,促进资金融通;优化影响环境,服务贸易发展。

In order to explore the current situation of China’s export growth to emerging markets,this study calculates China’s intensive margin and expansion margin to emerging market countries in terms of product level,and the calculation results show that China’s export growth to emerging markets is driven mainly by intensive margin and has been in a state of stable growth.China’s trade costs for emerging markets are divided into five categories,i.e.,transportation cost,policy cost,information cost,exchange rate cost and trading partners’domestic cost,and these categories are subdivided into 11 variables,which are analyzed empirically by using the extended gravity model with the investigation period ranging from 2004 to 2017.The results show that these five categories of trade costs have different effects on the binary margin with different effects on the intensive margin and the extended margin.Based on these results,such proposals are put forward in the study as perfecting the construction of transportation facilities to reduce foreign trade resistance,accelerating the process of free trade to improve the level of opening up,strengthening the construction of communication facilities to improve the level of information communication,expanding international financial cooperation to promote financing,and optimizing the influence environment to serve trade development.