空间视角下人口结构影响经济增长的理论机制与实证分析

Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of Population Structure’s Influence on Economic Growth from the Perspective of Space

在理论分析的基础上,以我国2000—2017年地区数据为样本,采用固定效应模型、空间杜宾模型对人口规模、城乡结构、人口素质对经济增长的影响进行分析,并利用分样本对变量间关系作进一步研究。研究结果显示:第一,人口结构变动对经济增长的影响存在空间效应;第二,城镇化间接通过提高生产技术水平而促进本地经济增长,人口素质提高对本地经济增长具有极显著的促进作用,但不具有显著的间接效应;第三,本地人口规模扩大对本地经济增长具有较强的抑制作用,在使用经济距离空间权重矩阵以及经济地理距离空间权重矩阵的情况下,人口规模扩大具有显著的正的间接效应。分样本的空间计量回归结果显示,城乡结构、人口素质、人口规模对经济增长的影响存在空间异质性。忽略研究对象的空间相关性会高估城乡结构、人口素质对经济增长的影响,低估人口规模对经济增长的影响。根据分析结果,提出合理调整城乡人口结构,充分发挥人才促进经济发展的带动作用与优化人口管理的对策建议。

Based on the theoretical analysis and by taking the panel data of China prefecture-level cities from2000 to 2017 as samples,this paper analyzes the influence of population scale,urban-rural structure and population quality on economic growth by adopting fixed effect model and spatial Durbin model,and show that:a.A spatial effect exists in the influence of population structure change on economic growth;b.Urbanization promotes local economic growth indirectly through improving the level of production technology,and the improvement of population quality has a very significant role in promoting local economic growth without significant indirect effect;and c.The expansion of local population size has a strong inhibitory effect on local economic growth,and in the case of using economic distance spatial weight matrix and economic geographical distance spatial weight matrix,the expansion of population size has a significant positive indirect effect.Based on the analysis results,such countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as reasonably adjusting the urban and rural population structure,giving full play to the leading role of talents in promoting economic development and optimizing population management.