小科学,大科学,超大科学——对科技发展三大模式及其增长规律的比较分析

Little Science,Big Science,Super Science——Comparative Analysis of Three Models of S&T Development and Growth Law

从科技发展史上看,世界科技的发展已经历或正在经历欧洲小科学、美国大科学和中国超大科学时期。本文通过比较分析小科学、大科学和超大科学时期科技发展模式及其增长规律,建立科技增长的三大动力学模型。在这些模型基础上提出小科学时代对应于科技增长的指数曲线规律,大科学时代对应于科技增长的S曲线规律,超大科学时代对应于科技增长的双S曲线规律。这三大科技发展基本规律是导致三大科学时代发展模式出现的根本原因。通过比较分析科技增长的动力学模型,使读者理解它们之间的根本区别和联系,以便更好地理解和把握科技发展基本规律,以适应21世纪科技发展模式转变。

From the history of S&T development,the S&T development in the world has experienced or is experiencing the period of European little science,American big science and Chinese super science.This paper compares and analyzes the development patterns and growth law of S&T in the periods of little science,big science and super science,and establishes three dynamic models of S&T growth.Based on three models the paper puts forward the following conclusions.Little science era corresponds with the exponential curve law of S&T growth.big science era corresponds with the S-curve law of S&T growth,super science era corresponds with the law of double S-curve.Three basic laws of S&T development are the fundamental reasons for the emergence of three development models in the scientific era.Through the comparative analysis of the dynamic model of S&T growth,the readers can understand the fundamental differences and connections between them,so that people can better understand and grasp the basic laws of S&T development,so as to adapt to the transformation of S&T development model in the 21st century.