汽油需求价格弹性的估计:基于48个研究的Meta分析

An Estimation of Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand:Meta Analysis Based on 48 Studies

汽油对人类的生产和生活方式产生了重大的影响,因此关于汽油需求价格弹性的估计也成了能源研究领域的重点话题。自上世纪50年代以来,大量的文献研究了汽油的短期和长期需求价格弹性,但估算的结果差异较大,甚至出现了截然相反的结论。通过对1974年到2018年48篇涉及汽油需求价格弹性文献的系统编码,得到209个弹性估计值,包括113个短期弹性和96个长期弹性,在进行Meta分析后发现:短期和长期弹性合并分析后的平均值分别为-0.191和-0.647。由于合并分析中的异质性较大,通过Meta回归分析发现:以短期和长期弹性为效应值的Meta回归分析效果较为理想;研究目标国、文献发表时间和研究方法对汽油需求价格弹性大小的研究存在显著影响;文献来源对汽油需求弹性大小的研究的影响不显著。

Gasoline has a significant impact on human production and lifestyle,so the estimation of the price elasticity of oil demand has become a key topic in the field of energy research.Since the 1950s,a large number of literatures have studied the short-term and long-term demand price elasticity of gasoline,but the results are quite different,and even the opposite results appear.Based on the systematic coding of 48 literatures on the price elasticity of gasoline demand from 1974 to 2018,this paper obtains 209 elasticity estimates,including 113 short-term and 96 long-term elasticity.After meta analysis,we found that the average value of short-term and long-term elastic combination analysis was-0.191 and-0.647,respectively.Due to the large heterogeneity in the combined analysis,this paper uses meta regression analysis and finds that:the effect of meta regression analysis with short-term and long-term elasticity as the effect value is relatively ideal;the research target country,literature publishing time and research method have significant influence on the research of gasoline demand price elasticity;the literature source has no significant influence on the research of gasoline demand elasticity.