近40a中巴经济走廊气候变化时空分布特征

Spatio-temporal characteristics of climate change in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor from 1980 to 2019

中巴经济走廊是"一带一路"倡议的重要组成部分,深入认识该地区气候变化时空分布特征和规律,对于项目顺利实施和安全保障有重大意义。采用CRU TSv4.04逐月地面气候要素数据集,分析1980-2019年中巴经济走廊地区气温、降水、干湿状况的气候变化时空分布特征。结果表明:中巴经济走廊地区气温呈显著上升趋势,中部地区增温速率低于两端地区,最低温度增温速率最快,为0.37℃·(10a)^(-1);平均气温次之,增温速率为0.32℃·(10a)^(-1);最高温度增温速率最慢,为0.29℃·(10a)^(-1)。降水量、降水日数与干湿变化的区域性差异较大,其中巴基斯坦西南部降水量显著减少,最大速率为-20 mm·(10a)^(-1),变干趋势明显;巴基斯坦中部地区降水日数显著增加,最大速率为4 d·(10a)^(-1)。

The China-Pakistan economic Corridor(CPEC)runs through Kashi,Xinjiang,China,and Pakistan;it is the flagship project of one belt and one road.This region has varied topography,complex and changeable climate,and frequent extreme events.Especially regarding global warming,climate change research has been closely linked to environmental and development issues.It is important for project implementation and security to better understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of climate change in this region.Using the monthly Climatic Research Unit Time Series v.4.04(TS v.4.04),the detailed climatology and change in temperature,precipitation,and dry-wet condition over CPEC during 1980-2019 were analyzed.The results showed that temperature has a significant increasing tendency with the highest rate in the central CPEC than the two ends.The rate of minimum temperature[0.37°C·(10 a)^(-1)]is higher than the mean temperature[0.32°C·(10 a)^(-1)]and maximum temperature[0.29°C·(10 a)^(-1)].There were larger regional differences in precipitation change,wet days,and dry-wet situations.Precipitation is considerably decreasing in the southwestern CPEC with a maximum rate of-20 mm·(10 a)^(-1).It is getting dry,while the wet days significantly increase in the central CPEC with a maximum rate of 4 d·(10 a)^(-1).