2021年3月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in March 2021

目的评估2021年3月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用"全球重点关注国家""各WHO分区一般关注国家"和"周边特别关注国家"予以表示。结果相较2021年2月,全球月新增确诊病例增加了31.97%,全球月新增死亡病例降低了4.68%。东南亚区、东地中海区、美洲(南)区的新增确诊和死亡病例增长率均较高,应重点关注。有多个国家本月新增确诊增长率超过了200%。印度是我国陆地接壤十四国中特别关注国家。结论进入3月后,全球COVID-19疫情明显反弹,对于全球重点关注区域和国家要持续进行监测,关注其疫情和防控政策变化,并同相关机构建立沟通机制,及时预警。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in March 2021 and the risk of importation.Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University,combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford,an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview,a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries,as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighboring countries.The assessment results for each country are expressed as’countries of global concern’,’countries of general concern in each WHO sub-region’and’neighboring countries of special concern’.Results Compared with the previous month,the number of confirmed cases increased by 31.97%and deaths decreased by4.68%globally in March 2021.The growth rates of newly confirmed and dead cases in Southeast Asia,Eastern Mediterranean and Americas(South)are high,these three regions need critical concern.In many countries,the growth rate of newly confirmed cases exceeded 200%this month.India is the country of special concern among the 14 land-boarding countries.Conclusion Since March,the global COVID-19 has obviously rebounded.It is necessary to continuously monitor regions and countries with global focus,paying attention to the changes of its epidemic situation and prevention and control policies,and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies and provide timely warnings.