近代中国宏观经济的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数研究——以1887-1936年近代中国经济为例

Research on Cobb-Douglas Production Function of Modern China's Macroeconomics——Taking the Modern Chinese Economy from 1887-1936 as an Example

本文通过对GDP、劳动力和资本存量进行估算与整理,拟合了1887-1936年中国柯布—道格拉斯生产函数。结果表明:在1887-1936年间,劳动力增加1%时,总产出就增加0.7779%;资本存量增加1%时,总产出就增加0.2221%。近代中国以农业生产为主,人口基数大,而资本品严重短缺,技术装备薄弱,属于极为典型的劳动密集型社会。此外,全要素生产率比民国时期低得多,1927年后,近代中国进入了宏观经济运行环境较前大为优化、稳定的时期。

This article fi ts China's Cobb-Douglas production function from 1887-1936 by estimating and sorting out GDP,labor and capital stocks.The results show that between 1887 and 1936,when the labor force increased by 1%,total output increased by 0.7779%;when the capital stock increased by 1%,total output increased by 0.2221%.Modern China was dominated by agricultural production,with a large population base,severe shortage of capital goods,and weak technical equipment.It was a very typical labor-intensive society.In addition,total factor productivity was much lower than that of the Republic of China.After 1927,modern China entered a period when the macroeconomic operating environment was greatly optimized and stabilized.