促贸援助有效性再检验及作用机制的异质性分析——来自“一带一路”沿线受援国的经验证据

Retesting of Aid for Trade Effectiveness and Heterogeneity Analysis of its Mechanism of Action: Empirical Evidence from the Belt and Road Recipients

促贸援助是OECD重要的全球发展议题。文章以DAC成员对"一带一路"沿线国家促贸援助为例,引入开放经济一般均衡模型构建理论分析框架,考察了促贸援助对受援国出口的影响及其作用机制,并利用2008-2017年双边出口面板数据基于扩展引力模型进行了实证检验。研究发现:(1)DAC成员对沿线国家的整体援助显著地促进了受援国出口,在控制了援助双边国家个体差异及时间影响后,这一结论依然稳健;(2)三类促贸援助及其政策组合对受援国出口的作用显示出较强的异质性;(3)中介效应模型对上述影响机制的分析表明,整体援助通过提升受援国开放水平扩大出口;三类促贸援助对受援国出口增长的具体作用机制不尽相同。文章不仅系统地分析了DAC成员促贸援助效果,而且从一个侧面给我国完善"一带一路"经贸合作机制提供了重要启示。

Aid for trade is a vital global development issue of OECD. This paper takes DAC members’ aid for trade with the "the Belt and Road" recipients as an example, introducing the general equilibrium model of open economy as theoretical analysis framework binding with an empirical test based on the expanded gravity model with bilateral export panel data from 2008 to 2017. The results show that:(1) The overall aid for trade of DAC members promoted the export of recipient countries significantly, which is still stable after controlling individual differences and time impact of bilateral aid countries.(2) The effects of three types of aid for trade and their policy combinations on the exports of recipient countries show strong heterogeneity.(3) Mechanism test shows that overall aid expands exports by improving openness, the specific mechanisms of the three types of aid for trade on the export growth of recipient countries are quite different. This paper not only analyzes the effect of promoting trade aid by DAC members systematically, but also provides important enlightenment for China to improve "the Belt and Road" economic and trade cooperation mechanism.