突发事件应急处置力量规划方法

Method of Emergency Response Force Planning

科学论证突发事件应急处置力量的规模结构和布局,是一项具有重要现实意义的研究课题。由于突发事件的不确定性、处置过程复杂性和力量运用的独特性,相比传统军事运筹学兵力规划问题有较大不同,需要针对其特点探索研究新的规模结构科学论证方法。提出基于数据挖掘分析与建模仿真的流程,首先运用历史数据统计挖掘出隐含的事件规律、处置规则和力量需求数量关系,构建典型事件力量需求模型;然后运用统计方法辅助进行威胁分析,研判各级处置力量的任务能力指标,形成任务集合作为论证起点,按照各种布局规则和处置力量需求模型推导出待评估方案,最后运用仿真实验手段推荐决策备选方案。

Emergency response force planning has practical significance.Due to the uncertainty,complexity and particularity in emergence response,force planning is different from traditional military force planning to a great extent.Aiming at the characteristics of this kind of problems and based on data analyze and simulation,this paper gives a practical and general planning method.Firstly,it analyzes and mines the regular pattern and digital model of the occurrence,response rules and resource requirement of historical emergencies.Secondly,it builds the task capability of response force by scale of areas or districts based on the results of first step.Thirdly,it constructs emergent task set and deduces multiple options using different rules including force distribution modes.Finally,it develops simulation system,assesses and selects several suggested options by multiple indices.