基于LMDI的长江经济带沿线水利风景区规模演变影响因素分析

Influencing Factor Analysis of the Scale Evolution of Water Conservancy Scenic Spots along the Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on LMDI

水利风景区规模演变影响因素分析可为推进水利风景区建设,促进区域可持续发展提供参考。采用LMDI方法,首次量化了水利风景区建设强度、水利工程开发程度、水资源配置结构和水资源量等四因素对长江经济带沿线水利风景区规模演变的影响。研究发现:(1)对经济带沿线整体水利风景区规模演变而言,水资源量是最主要正向影响因素,水资源配置结构的影响最小。(2)对经济带分省市水利风景区规模演变而言,四因素中水利风景区建设强度和水利工程开发程度在四川、重庆、贵州均呈最强正向作用,在湖南、湖北、安徽和浙江分别是最主要正向和负向影响因素,在云南分别呈最显著负向和正向影响;江苏、江西对应最显著正向影响因素为水利工程开发程度;四川、重庆、江苏对应最主要负向影响因素为水资源配置结构;经济带整体水资源量在贵州、江西均呈负向影响。继而对经济带沿线省市有关水利风景区建设提出针对性建议。

The influencing factor analysis of the scale evolution of water conservancy scenic spot(WCSS), can provide reference for promoting the construction of this kind of scenic spot, and enhancing regional sustainable development. With LMDI model, the factor contribution of scale evolution of WCSS along Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB) are quantified. The factors include the construction intensity of WCSS, the development degree of water conservancy projects, the structure of water resources allocation and the endowment of water resources for the first time. The results show that:(1) For the WCSS scale evolution of the whole YREB,the influence of the endowment of water resources is the strongest positive, while the structure of water resources allocation shows the weakest impact.(2) For the WCSS scale evolution in each provinces along the YREB, among the four factors, the construction intensity of WCSS, and the development degree of water conservancy projects, play the strongest positive role in Sichuan, Chongqing and Guizhou, have respectively the most important positive and negative effect in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui and Zhejiang, and contrarily play respectively significant negative and positive roles in Yunnan. The most significant factor with positive influence in Jiangxi and Jiangsu is the development degree of water conservancy projects. The main negative influencing factor in Sichuan, Chongqing and Jiangsu is the structure of water resources allocation, while the water resource endowment of YREB shows negative effect in Guizhou and Jiangxi. Then some focalized suggestions are put forward on the construction of the WCSS for YREB.