我国个人卫生支出占卫生总费用比重监测评价与预测研究

Study on Monitoring and Evaluation of the Share of Out-of-pocket Payment in Total Health Expenditure in China and Its Prediction

目的:对2020年我国卫生总费用及个人卫生支出占比开展季度核算,提高数据时效性,并对"十四五"时期该比重变化情况进行科学预测。方法:在常规年度核算基础上,创新性设计季度核算方法,采用组分模型、趋势预测法等对卫生总费用进行预测。结果:2020年个人卫生支出占比将降至28.1%,"十四五"时期该比重仍将持续下降。结论:建议"十四五"末该比重发展目标设定在26.5%~27%之间,继续完善卫生筹资机制,保障卫生筹资的充足、公平和可持续。

Objective:For further improving time-effectiveness,it explores a quarterly accounting of national total health expenditure(THE)and its share of out-of-pocket payment(OOP),and predicts the share of OOP in THE.Methods:On the basis of annual regular accounting,it innovates and creates a quarterly accounting method,and adopted component-based model and trend prediction method to forecast health expenditure and its financing.Results:The share of OOP in 2020 will be decreased to 28.1%,and further decreased during 14 th Five-year Plan.Conclusion:It suggests to set the object of share of OOP in THE around 26.5%~27.0%,and continuously improve health financing mechanism and safeguard the sufficiency,equity and sustainability of health financing.