人口年龄结构变动对教育投资的影响

An Empirical Study of the Impact of the Change of China’s Population Age Structure on Education Investment

文章通过构建人口年龄结构变动对教育投资影响的理论框架,利用中国31个省、区、市2003—2018年的面板数据,实证分析效用最大化视角下的少儿人口比和人口老龄化水平对教育投资的影响。结果表明,人口老龄化水平的回归系数为正,其平方项的回归系数为负,人口老龄化水平对教育投资存在显著的“倒U型”非线性影响,人口老龄化挤出教育投资的拐点位置为10.47%。人口老龄化带来的公共资源配置代际冲突出现在2015年,并可以通过养老、医疗保险基金支出回归系数等加以佐证。上述结论对人口年龄结构变量选取和回归方法选择具有稳健性。

By constructing the theoretical framework of the impact of population age structure changes on education investment,this paper finds that from the perspective of utility maximization,both the proportion of children’s population to total population and population aging level have a non-linear impact on education investment.In order to verify the conclusions of the theoretical model,the paper empirically analyzes the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2018.The results show that the regression coefficient of the population aging level is positive,and the regression coefficient of its squared term is negative.The population aging level has a significant inverse U shaped nonlinear effect on education investment.Consistent with the theoretical model,it is judged that the inflection point of the population aging extrusion education investment is 10.47%,and the intergenerational conflict of public resources allocation caused by population aging appeared in 2015 and has been confirmed by the regression coefficient of pension and medical insurance fund expenditure.The above research conclusions are robust to the selection of population age structure variables and the selection of regression method.Finally,this paper gives countermeasures.