数字贸易、产业结构升级与经济高质量发展——基于中介效应模型

Digital trade, upgrading of industrial structure and high-quality economic development--Based on the mediated effect model

基于2014—2019年中国31个省份数字贸易面板数据,运用中介效应模型,对数字贸易如何作用于产业结构升级、促进地区经济高质量发展问题进行研究,进一步基于异质性视角,探究了东、中、西部地区的中介效应。研究发现,数字贸易对经济高质量发展存在双重影响机制,一方面数字贸易对经济高质量发展具有显著直接的促进效应,另一方面产业结构升级能够发挥部分中介效应,助推数字贸易对经济高质量发展产生正向影响;从异质性视角看,东、中部地区产业结构升级均在数字贸易对经济高质量发展影响过程中发挥部分中介效应,且东部地区中介效应最为明显,而西部地区产业结构升级表现为遮掩效应。

Based on the digital trade panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2014 to 2019,this paper used themediated effect model to study how digital trade can promote the upgrading of industrial structure and high-quality development of regional economy,and it further explored the mediated effect of eastern,central and western regions from the perspective of heterogeneity.The study found that digital trade has a dual impact mechanism on high-quality economic development.On the one hand,digital trade has a significant and direct promoting effect on high-quality economic development;On the other hand,the upgrading of industrial structure can play a part of the mediated effect,to boost the positive impact of digital trade on high-quality economic development;From the perspective of heterogeneity,the upgrading of industrial structure in the eastern and central regions has played a part of the mediatedeffect in the process of digital trade’s impact on economic high-quality development,and the mediated effect in the eastern region is the most obvious,while the upgrading of industrial structure in the western region shows a masking effect.