中国与“一带一路”国家出口贸易影响因素实证分析——基于文化输出视角

Empirical analysjs of the influencing factors of export trade of China and countires along the Belt and Road--Based on culture output

在借鉴传统的贸易引力模型基础上,建立基于时间序列的贸易引力扩展模型,并通过回归分析对模型进行优化,随后构建嵌入文化输出的出口贸易模型。以“一带一路”沿线国家中与中国贸易往来最为密切的4个国家(即韩国、越南、俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦)为例,分别运用普通最小二乘法进行多元线性回归。结果表明:“一带一路”沿线国家的经济发展水平是中国向“一带一路”沿线国家出口贸易的主要影响因素,而中国的净出口因素影响较小,对越南而言影响甚至为零。建立孔子学院对中国出口贸易具有促进作用,但总体影响系数较小,其中对越南的影响系数最大,其次为韩国和俄罗斯,而对哈萨克斯坦的促进作用不明显。

Based on the traditional,Trade Gravity Model,this paper established a time series-based trade gravity expansion model,and optimized the model through regression analysis,and then built an export trade model embedded in cultural output.It took four countries along the Belt and Road that have the closest trade with China(South Korea,Vietnam,Russia,and Kazakhstan)as examples,and used ordinary least squares to perform multiple linear regression.The results show that the economic development level of the countries along the Belt and Road is the main factor that affects China’s export trade to them,while China’s net export factor has small impact,or even no impact on Vietnam.The establishment of Confucius Institutes has a promoting effect on China’s export trade,but the overall influence coefficient is relatively small;Vietnam has the largest influence coefficient,followed by South Korea and Russia,while the promotion effect on Kazakhstan is not obvious.