基于灰色理论的亳州地区房地产价格预测研究

Forecast of Real Estate Price in Bozhou Area Based on Grey Theory

目的为了更好的对亳州地区房地产进行监督和管理,根据灰色理论具有预测不确定信息及数学基础简单的特性对亳州房地产的价格进行预测。方法依据亳州不动产信息平台公告的商住房交易价格数据,分析以灰色预测GM(1,1)模型来预测房地产价格趋势的可行性。结果以亳州三县一区为预测目标获得的结果显示,年度平均商住房交易价格平均单价的预测值平均误差百分比小于10%,属于优良的预测水平,具有较高的参考价值。结论灰色理论GM(1,1)预测模型具有相当可靠度的预测可行性,预测结果为亳州地区房地产行业管理部门的监督和管理提供了技术支持,同时也为购房者提供了购买的参考依据。

Objective To better supervise and manage the real estate in Bozhou area,the price of real estate in Bozhou was predicted based on the gray theory,which has the characteristics of predicting uncertain information and simple mathematical foundation.Methods Based on the commercial housing transaction price data announced by the Bozhou real estate information platform,the gray forecasting GM(1,1)model analysis steps were used to predict the feasibility of real estate price trends.Results The forecast results obtained in three counties and one district in Bozhou showed that the average error percentage of the forecast value of the average price of the annual average commercial housing transaction was less than 10%,which was an excellent forecast level and had a high reference value.Conclusion The gray theory GM(1,1)prediction model has a fairly reliable prediction feasibility.The prediction results provide technical support for the supervision and management of the real estate industry in Bozhou area,and also provide buyers with reference for purchase.