国际市场、国内市场与劳动力市场的效益分析--基于中国人均实际产出增长率分解的视角

The Benefit Analysis of International Market,Domestic Market and Labor Market:From the Perspective of Decomposition of China's Per Capita Real Output Growth Rate

本文基于Eaton-Kortum模型,运用Arkolakis等(2012)提出的贸易量化模型将国际市场、国内市场与劳动力市场纳入一个理论分析框架,量化比较三者对中国加入WTO后人均实际产出增长率的贡献。结果表明:(1) 2002-2012年间全国人均实际产出增长率在产出-需求侧和投入-供给侧的分解结果存在较大差异,投入-供给侧计算的人均实际产出增长率大于产出-需求侧;(2)无论是从产出-需求侧还是投入-供给侧来看,非农部门对全国人均实际产出增长率的贡献远远大于农业部门,劳动力市场的贡献在三大市场中最大;(3)从产出-需求侧来看,国内市场对全国人均实际产出增长率的贡献大于国际市场,从投入-供给侧来看国际市场的贡献大于国内市场;(4)东部省份的人均实际产出增长率最高,东北部省份的增长率则最低,区域间发展不平衡问题依旧突出。本文为当前"双循环"新发展格局和劳动力市场改革提供了一定的理论支撑。

Based on the Eaton-Kortum model,this paper uses Arkolakis et al(2012)'s trade quantitative model to integrate the international market,the domestic market and the labor market into a theoretical analysis framework,and compares the contribution of the three markets to China's per capita real output growth rate after its entry into the WTO.The research results are as follows.(1)From 2002 to 2012,the decomposition results of China's per capita real output growth rate are significantly different between the output-demand side and the input-supply side,and the per capita real output growth rate calculated on the input-supply side is greater than that on the output-demand side.(2)From the perspective of both the output-demand side and the input-supply side,the contribution of the non-agricultural sector to China's per capita real output growth rate is much greater than that of the agricultural sector,and the contribution of the labor market is the largest among the three markets.(3)On the output-demand side,the contribution of the domestic market to China's per capita real output growth rate is greater than that of the international market,but on the input-supply side,the contribution of the international market is greater than that of the domestic market.(4)The eastern provinces have the highest per capita real output growth rate,while that of the northeastern provinces is the lowest,which indicates that the problem of unbalanced development among regions is still serious.This paper provides some theoretical support for the current new development pattern of“dual circulation”(defined as a policy that“takes the domestic market as the mainstay while letting internal and external markets boost each other”)and the labor market reform.