中国海洋渔业经济增长质量测度及空间分异

Quality Measurement and Spatial Differentiation of China′s Marine Fishery Economic Growth

党的十九大以来,我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,按照稳中求进工作总基调和农业农村优先发展总方针,推进海洋渔业高质量发展面临新机遇。本文以海洋渔业经济增长质量内涵为基础,采用产业结构熵指数等,构建海洋渔业经济增长质量评价指标体系;建立包括增长的基本面和社会成果两个维度的海洋渔业经济增长质量评价模型,对海洋渔业经济增长质量进行测度,同时探讨其时空分异特征。研究结果表明:(1)中国海洋渔业经济增长质量在2003—2015年呈现四个完整的波动周期:2003—2005年的小幅波动,2006—2008年的先上升后下降,2009—2011年的缓慢波动上升,2012—2015年的小幅下降,2016年之后步入企稳增长新阶段;(2)中国海洋渔业经济增长质量在地区间分布不均衡,且差距逐渐显现;(3)预判中国海洋渔业经济增长质量在2016年之后,开始逐步进军高质量发展新阶段,地区间质量发展的非均衡态势短期内难以弥合。研究为有效推进海洋渔业供给侧结构性改革,促进海洋渔业高质量发展提供参考。

Since the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China′ s economy has shifted from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of high-quality development. In accordance with the general keynote of seeking progress while maintaining stability and the general policy of giving priority to the development of agriculture and rural areas, the high-quality development of marine fisheries is facing new opportunities. Based on the connotation of the economic quality of marine fishery development, this paper uses the industrial structure entropy index to construct a marine fishery economic development quality evaluation index system;establishes a marine fishery economic growth quality evaluation equation that includes the two dimensions of growth fundamentals and social outcomes. The results show that:(1)The economic growth quality of China′ s marine fisheries showed four complete cycles of fluctuations from 2003 to2015, with small fluctuations from 2003 to 2005, first rising and then falling from 2006 to2008, and rising slowly from 2008 to 2011. A slight decline from 2012 to 2015, and slowly entering a new stage of high-quality development after 2015;(2) The quality of China′ s marine fishery economic growth is unevenly distributed among regions, and the gap gradually appears;(3) It is predicted that the economic growth quality of China′ s marine fishery industry will gradually enter a new stage of high-quality development after2016, and it is difficult to bridge the imbalance trend of quality development among regions in the short term. The research provides a reference for effectively advancing the supply-side structural reform of marine fisheries and promoting the high-quality development of marine fisheries.