货币供给与通货膨胀背离的时变成因分析

An Analysis of the Time-varying Causes of the Deviation between Money Supply and Inflation

本文以现实经济对弗里德曼货币数量论失效的印证为基础,从货币需求结构和产出缺口视角建立时变参数菲利普斯理论分析框架,探讨在实体部门与虚拟部门货币流通渠道内,产出缺口为正或负的条件下,货币供给与通胀背离的内在机理。并选取2015年1月至2020年6月的金融数据,分析不同时变参数下产出缺口、生产者价格指数、预期、货币政策与经济不确定因素对通胀的同期时变效应,具体刻画不同因素对通货膨胀同期影响效应的持久性突变与渐进性演变特征。研究发现:流向实体部门的货币量对通胀影响程度不到虚拟部门的8.6%,虚拟经济与实体经济货币结构性失衡将降低通胀对实体经济货币供给的响应系数,加剧货币供给与通胀的背离;与价格型货币政策对通胀的影响程度0.15相比,数量型货币政策影响程度为0.25,以数量型货币政策为基础适当采用价格型货币政策更加能够实现既定经济目标;通胀预期对通胀影响无论在当期还是在中长期都具有持久惯性特征,说明当前消费者对政府政策信心度较高,可以将前瞻性指引作为未来货币政策选择。

Based on the confirmation of the failure of Friedman’s monetary quantity theory by the real economy, this paper establishes the Phillips theoretical analysis framework of time-varying parameters from the perspective of money demand structures and output gaps, and discusses the internal mechanism of the deviation between money supply and inflation under the condition that the output gap is positive or negative in the currency circulation channels of the real sector and the virtual sector.Choosing the financial data from January 2015 to June 2020,this paper analyzes the time-varying effects of output gap, producer price index, expectation, monetary policy and economic uncertainty on inflation under different time-varying parameters, and specifically depicts the characteristics of mutation and gradual evolution of the effect of different factors on inflation in the same period.It is found that the influence of money flowing to the real sector on inflation is less than 8.6% of that of the virtual sector.The structural imbalance between virtual economy and real economy reduces the response coefficient of inflation to the money supply of the real economy, and aggravates the deviation between money supply and inflation.Compared with the impact degree of price monetary policy on inflation of 0.15,the impact degree of quantitative monetary policy is 0.25.On the basis of quantitative monetary policy, the appropriate use of price monetary policy can achieve the set economic goals;the impact of inflation expectations on inflation has persistent inertia in both the current period and the medium and long term, which indicates that consumers have high confidence in government policies at present, and we can take forward-looking guidance as the choice of future monetary policy.