拜登政府对华态势考察:侧重于战略军事

An Observation on the Biden Administration's Posture Toward China, with Emphasis on Strategic Military

拜登政府执政伊始明确示意,一段时间内它保持对华"战略耐心",即不理睬中国近来对美放话中的"软成分",而要先行追求三重协调,并且等待中方就某些或个别重大问题软化实际行为方式。对中国近来对美放话中的"硬成分",拜登政府毫无"战略耐心",坚持就一系列重大问题触击中方反复强调的核心利益和民族尊严。在战略军事方面,就台湾、南海、美日军事同盟和东海、印太四国联盟,拜登政府以大量政策声明和实际行动,马不停蹄地强化和升级对中国的戒备、威胁、围堵和反推。重大战略动向还包括旨在备战的军备建设与军事规划和部署,其中心内涵为针对中国陆基中程/中远程常规战略导弹攻击优势,构设和施行三大基本对应方式和四项辅助对应手段。浮现中的拜登政府对华政策总纲将中国界定为唯一有经济、外交、军事和技术权势去严重挑战美国及其主导的国际体系的国家,美国力求以分布在四大范畴的政策系统去赢得对华战略对抗和竞争。切勿低估美国反华民意在更强硬方向上对拜登政府对华态势的进一步催逼,也切勿低估该政府的能力和已有成就,因而须就其综合实力和潜能作经久的开放性观察。

At the beginning of being in office,the Biden Administration indicated explicitly that for a period it would maintain a"strategic patience"toward China,pay no heed to the"soft elements"contained in the numerous messages the Chinese government delivered publicly in recent months that were intended to impress the Biden team,and engage in the first place in the"triple coordinations",while wait behavior improvement from the Chinese side on some or at least one or two major disputed points.However,toward the"hard elements"contained in the above messages,it has had no"strategic patience"at all,persisting in its offence in a series of major issues against what the Chinese side has emphasized repeatedly as China's core interest and national dignity.At the strategic military front,as to the issue of Taiwan,South China Sea,U.S.-Japan military alliance and East China Sea,Indo-Pacific Quadruple coalition,the Biden Administration by numerous policy statements and actual deeds and operations has pushed on with almost no suspension the precautions,threats,containment,and rolling-backs against China.Including in the major strategic trends,there have been military build-up,planning and deployments,all for war preparation.And,they focus on overcoming the offensive preponderance of China's mid-and-longer range conventional strategic missiles,by designing and implementing three major responses in addition to four auxiliary responsive tools.The emerging general outline of the Biden Administration's policy toward China is to define China as the sole country which have economic,diplomatic,military and technological power to severely and durably challenge the United States and the international system led by the United States.The Biden Administration is striving to prevail through a policy system with four primary components.One should not underestimate the dynamics of the anti-China public opinion to force the Administration to take even more hardline posture toward China,and also should not belittle the Administrations capacity and existing achievements,so having to engage in a sort of protracted open-end observation on its overall strength and potentiality.