过渡抑或替代:居住证对农民工城镇落户意愿的影响

Transition or Replacement:Effects of Residence Permit on Migrant Workers Willingness of Household Registration

居住证制度为有条件有能力的农民工定居并落户城镇开辟了通道。基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,运用Logistic回归模型考察了居住证对农民工城镇落户意愿的影响,并探讨了该影响在不同群体中可能存在的异质性及其作用机制。研究结果表明:现阶段居住证对农民工城镇落户意愿的影响发挥过渡效应,而非替代效应;持有居住证者的城镇落户意愿几率高出未持有居住证者51.3%;使用条件混合过程估计方法控制潜在内生性问题后,结果依然稳健。居住证对农民工城镇落户意愿的过渡效应具有群体性差异,在雇员、家庭月收入较高、跨省流动、一线和新一线城市农民工群体中,作用更大。居住证对农民工城镇落户意愿的过渡效应是通过本地城镇医保、健康档案、子女教育基本公共服务可及性和城市社会认同中介实现的。由此,当前新型城镇化的政策设计应全面提升居住证的覆盖范围,提高居住证的"含金量",因地制宜、有序推进农民工落户城镇。

As a gradual transitional measure in the reform of the household registration system,the residence permit system opens a channel for qualified and capable migrant workers to settle down in cities and get urban household registration.Based on the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2017,this paper uses logistic regression model and CMP method to analyze the effect of residence permit on the migrant workers’willingness of urban household registration.The results are as follows:Residence permit has a significantly positive effect on the migrant workers’willingness of urban household registration.Migrant workers with residence permit are more willing to get urban household registration.The effect of residence permit on the migrant workers’willingness of urban household registration plays a greater role in the employees,higher income household,inter-provincial,first-tier cities and new first-tier cities migrant workers.The residence permit also indirectly influences the migrant workers’willingness of household registration by influencing the accessibility of basic public services of urban medical insuranc,health records,government-subsidized housing,children’s education and promoting urban identity.Accordingly,the paper proposes to improve the coverage of residence permit,improve the value of residence permit,promote migrant workers urban residency according to local conditions.