最低工资上升是否会加速工业企业自动化?——来自中国机器人进口的思考

Does the Rising Minimum Wage Accelerate the Automation of Industrial Firms?--A Thinking Based on the Import of Chinese Industrial Robots

在人工智能等新一轮科学技术迅速发展的背景下,从中国工业机器人应用的现实出发,结合企业层面的微观数据,本文通过构建Heckman两阶段回归模型,考察了最低工资上升对工业企业机器人技术应用的影响。研究表明:(1)最低工资上升会提高劳动工资,尤其是低技能工人工资水平,促使企业引进先进的自动化设备重新组织生产,加快中国企业的自动化升级进程;(2)与西部地区相比,位于最低工资标准较高的东、中部地区的企业进行自动化革新的概率更大;(3)最低工资上升对不同替代性风险、不同规模、不同要素密集度、不同工资水平等企业的自动化影响存在差异:替代风险越高、规模越大、劳动要素越密集、劳工成本占比越高的企业,在面临最低工资上调时使用工业机器人的可能性越大;(4)最低工资主要通过成本效应渠道加快中国工业企业转型升级的步伐。

In the context of the rapid development of a new round of science and technology such as artificial intelligence and the reality of Chinese industrial robot application and the micro-data of firm level,this paper constructs a two-stage regression model of Heckman and investigates the impact of the rise of minimum wage on the application of industrial robots.The results demonstrate that,(1)rising minimum wages will increase labor wages,especially for low-skilled workers,urge firms to use advanced automation equipment-industrial robots to displace some low-skilled workers and accelerate the automation of Chinese enterprises;(2)enterprises in the eastern and central region with higher minimum wages are more likely to automate than in the western regions;(3)the effect of the increase of the minimum wage on the automation of enterprises is heterogeneous:the higher the substitution risk,the larger the scale,the more intensive labor factors,the higher the labor cost,the greater the possibility of using industrial robots when the minimum wage rises;(4)The upward adjustment of the minimum wage standard will accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading of Chinese enterprises through the channel of cost effects.