基于S型效用函数的农业旱灾脆弱性评估--以河南省为例

Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Based on S-shaped Utility Function:A Case Study of Henan Province

为了评估区域农业旱灾的脆弱性,基于S型效用函数对河南省农业旱灾脆弱性进行评估.采用粗糙集理论属性约简的方法剔除不相关的脆弱性因素,对于初始选取的指标进行优化;针对农业旱灾脆弱性指标权重确定的主观性问题,运用极大熵原则和群体一致性准则求解属性权重;运用S型效用函数求解效用值,借助于ArcGIS自然断点法进行空间区划,并运用到河南省农业旱灾脆弱性评估中.结果表明,农业旱灾脆弱性较强的地区为三门峡、平顶山、驻马店、安阳、濮阳,较弱的地区为郑州,其他地区处于中等水平.

In order to assess the vulnerability of regional agricultural drought,the agricultural drought vulnerability of Henan Province is evaluated based on the"S-shaped"utility function.The rough set theory attribute reduction method is used to eliminate irrelevant vulnerability factors,and the initial selected indicators are optimized.For the subjective problem of determining the weight of agricultural drought vulnerability indicators,the maximum entropy principle and the group consistency criterion are used to solve the attribute weight.The"S-shaped"utility function is used to solve the utility value,and the ArcGIS natural breakpoint method is used for spatial division,which is applied to the agricultural drought vulnerability assessment in Henan Province.The results show that Sanmenxia,Pingdingshan,Zhumadian,Anyang and Puyang have strong agricultural drought vulnerability,Zhengzhou is weaker,and the other regions are at a medium level.