农业生产经营规模效率的时空跃迁规律分析

Analysis on Temporal and Spatial Transition Rule of Scale Efficiency of Agricultural Production and Management

选择基于SFA修正的三阶段DEA分析模型,测算2007—2018年我国各省域农业生产经营规模效率,采用探索性时空分析,揭示中国农业生产经营规模效率的分异特征与演化规律。结果表明:(1)产业布局模式背景下的级差化分异特征仍旧明显,原因是各地经济发展模式的差异,反映出西部区域存在综合效率、规模效率与技术效率的“三低”现状。(2)以“胡焕庸线”为界的梯度化分异特征被逐步打破,“胡焕庸线”东侧农业生产经营规模效率降低较为明显,西侧区域如内蒙古、新疆等地规模效率提升相对显著。(3)局部空间范围的集聚特征已初步形成,尤其是东北和中部地区存在较强的局部高值集聚性。(4)整体空间格局演化中省域之间呈现一定的跃迁惰性,阻力的形成源自局部空间依赖性的凝固。

The modified three-stage DEA model based on SFA is chosen to calculate the scale efficiency of agricultural production and management in all provinces of China in 2007—2018,and the exploratory time-space analysis is used to reveal the differentiation characteristic and evolution rule of the scale efficiency of agricultural production and management in China.The following conclusions are mainly obtained:(1)The differentiation characteristic is still obvious under the background of industrial layout mode,and the reason lies in the difference of economic development models in various regions,and it also reflects the current“three low”situations of western regions,namely low overall efficiency,low scale efficiency and low technical efficiency;(2)The gradient differentiation feature in the area divided by the‘Hu’s Line’has been broken step by step,the scale efficiency of agriculture production and management in the east side of the‘Hu’s Line’is significantly decreased,while the scale efficiency in the west side such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is obviously increased;(3)The agglomeration characteristic has formed initially in a local space range,and especially there is a high agglomeration in northeast and central regions;(4)Some transition inertia exists among the provinces during the whole spatial pattern evolution,and it is formed due to the solidification of local space dependence.