新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对国际干散货航运市场的短期影响

The Short-term Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic Situation on the International Dry Bulk Shipping Market

为探究新型冠状病毒肺炎(Corona Virus Disease 2019,COVID-19,简称新冠肺炎)疫情对国际干散货航运市场的短期影响,应对新冠肺炎疫情下动荡的国际贸易,为干散货航运市场的发展提供方向与建议,考虑到国际原油价格在反映世界经济发展状况的同时,作为上游产业同干散货航运市场联系密切,选用回归分析法,结合国际原油价格考察新冠肺炎疫情对干散货航运市场的冲击并探究其冲击角度。结果表明,即期新冠肺炎疫情对干散货航运市场冲击显著,滞后1~7期新冠肺炎疫情同干散货航运市场均具有较强相关性,存在持续性冲击。新冠肺炎疫情短期内对国际干散货市场的影响存在于供需双侧,且以需求侧为主。国际干散货航运企业应积极应对新冠疫情带来的国际贸易波动,港口企业和政府部门也应在充分了解市场的情况下做出积极的运营管理规划和政策扶持。

In order to explore the short-term impact of the epidemic situation of Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19)on the international dry bulk shipping market,to deal with the turbulent international trade under the epidemic situation of COVID-19,and to provide directions and suggestions for the development of the dry bulk shipping market,considering that the international crude oil price reflects the development of the world economy,as an upstream industry,it is closely linked with the dry bulk shipping market,the regression analysis method was adopted to explore the impact of COVID-19 epidemic situation on the dry bulk shipping market and its impact angle were investigated in the light of international crude oil price.The results show that the immediate COVID-19 epidemic has a significant impact on the dry-bulk shipping market,and there is a strong correlation between the delayed 1~7 stage COVID-19 epidemic and the dry-bulk shipping market.The short-term impact of COVID-19 epidemic situation on the international dry bulk market is mainly on both the demand side and supply side,especially on the demand side.International dry bulk shipping enterprises should actively deal with the fluctuation of international trade caused by COVID-19 epidemic situation,and port enterprises and government should make active operation and management plans and policy support in the light of fully understanding the market.