基于行业发展与政府规制双重约束的新疆旅游业用水需求预测

Forecast of water demand for tourism in Xinjiang based on double restrictions of tourism development and government regulation

首先基于旅游业行业发展和水资源管理政府规制的双重约束,设计9种情景;然后从旅游全要素视角,建立由餐饮、住宿、能源、生态、购物等5类水足迹账户组成的旅游业用水需求量预测模型;将旅游业从业人员纳入账户,提出不同情景下旅游业5类水足迹账户的预测方法;最后对2025年不同情景下新疆旅游业用水量进行了预测。研究结果表明:2025年,相较于政府规制力度和行业发展速度,新疆旅游业用水需求量对后者更为敏感;9种情景中,中/强是最适宜的发展情景,即控制游客规模以9%的速度发展,旅游业年度新增就业人员4万人,政府控制万元工业增加值用水量年均节水率7%,控制居民生活用能源增速为5.52%。

The water demand for tourism in Xinjiang is forecast based on different scenarios.Firstly,based on the double restrictions of"industry development"of tourism and"government regulation"of water resource management,nine scenarios are designed.Secondly,from the perspective of total elements of tourism,a model is established for predicting the water demand for tourism that consists of five types of water footprint accounts,including catering,accommodation,energy,ecology and shopping.Thirdly,the tourism practitioners are incorporated into the accounts,and the relative methods are proposed for predicting the five types of tourism water footprint accounts under different scenarios.Finally,the water demand for tourism in Xinjiang is forecast under different scenarios in 2025.The following conclusions are drawn:in 2025,the water demand for tourism in Xinjiang is more sensitive to the speed of industry development than to strength of government regulation.Among the 9 scenarios,the"medium/strong"situation is the most suitable development scenario,that is,the scale of tourists is controlled to develop at a rate of 9%,the tourism industry adds40,000 new employees every year,the government controls10,000 yuan of industrial value-added water consumption with an average annual water saving rate of 7%,and the growth rate of residential energy consumption is 5.52%.