俄美中导竞争与中国应对方略

Competition between Russia and the United States in the field of medium and short range missiles and China’s strategy

2019年8月美俄两国正式退出《中导条约》,开始公开研发陆基中短程导弹。俄美重启中导竞争,将会刺激俄美在反导和其他战略军备领域的竞赛,侵蚀全球战略稳定,破坏亚洲和欧洲地区战略稳定,从而对中国战略安全构成威胁。俄美短期内在中导和反导领域展开竞争,中长期内可能寻求政治解决中导竞争问题。美国将在关岛和日本等亚太盟国部署陆基中程导弹,以中导制衡中国导弹,谋求对华军事优势。中国的应对方略包括:不参加新的《中导条约》谈判;本着“少而精,够威慑”的原则,提升中国核武器的质量,确保核威慑的可靠性;一旦美国在亚太地区部署陆基中程导弹,中国将被迫采取反制措施,以导弹反制美国中导,等等。

In August 2019,the United States and Russia formally withdrew from the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate range and short-range missiles between the United States and the Soviet Union,and began to publicly develop land-based medium-and short-range missiles.The resumption of the competition between Russia and the United States for land-based medium and short-range missiles will stimulate the competition between Russia and the United States in the field of antimissile and other strategic arms,erode global strategic stability,undermine the strategic stability in Asia and Europe,and thus pose a threat to China’s strategic security.In the short term,Russia and the United States will compete in the field of medium-and short-range missiles and anti missile systems,and may seek political solutions to the problem in the medium and long term.The United States will deploy land-based medium range missiles in Asia Pacific allies such as Guam and Japan to balance Chinese missiles and seek military advantages over China.China’s response strategies include:China does not participate in the negotiation of the new treaty on medium and short range missiles;in line with the principle of“less but better,enough deterrence”,China will improve the quality of its nuclear weapons and ensure the reliability of nuclear deterrence;once the United States deploys land-based medium range missiles in the Asia Pacific region,China will be forced to take countermeasures to counter the United States medium range missiles with missiles.