人民币国际化、汇率波动与出口贸易

Renminbi Internationalization, Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Trade

选取了2011—2018年我国与10个主要贸易国家的贸易面板数据,根据名义汇率等数据,编制了2011—2018年我国与主要贸易国的汇率波动率,并结合中国人民大学自己编制的人民币国际化指数,研究人民币的国际化、汇率的波动性、汇率水平对于出口贸易的影响,结果表明:人民币升值、汇率波动将抑制出口,通过对交互项系数的分析表明,人民币国际化程度上升,将使得汇率波动对于出口的抑制作用降低,从而肯定了人民币国际化的正面作用。因此,只有人民币国际化进程进一步加快,才能尽可能消除人民币汇率波动对我国出口贸易带来的负面影响。

This paper selected the 2011—2018 China's trade with 10 major trading nations panel data,according to the nominal exchange rate and other data,compiled from 2011 to 2018 in China and major trading nations of exchange rate volatility,the internationalisation of the RMB index produced by Renmin university of China,studied the internationalisation of the RMB,exchange rate fluctuations,the influence of the exchange rate for export trade.The results show that the appreciation of RMB and exchange rate fluctuations will inhibit the export,and the analysis of the interaction term coefficient shows that the increase of RMB internationalization will reduce the inhibition effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the export,thus affirming the positive effect of RMB internationalization.The conclusion shows that only by further accelerating the process of RMB internationalization can we eliminate the negative impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's export trade as much as possible.