基于响应面-蒙特卡罗法的实体靶船极限强度分析

Investigation on the ultimate strength of full-scale target ship using a response surface-Monte Carlo simulation method

为了合理地评估由实船改装的实体靶船极限强度,采用响应面-蒙特卡罗法结合非线性有限元法给出了一种考虑材料机械性能和结构腐蚀等参数不确定性的极限强度分析方法。通过实船计算表明:响应面设计点的合理选取,可以有效降低计算工作量并保证响应面拟合精度;实体靶船极限承载能力的概率分布更趋近于正态分布或对数正态分布。研究成果对于实体靶船极限强度评估具有借鉴意义。

To reasonably evaluate the ultimate strength of target ships refitting from real warships, a probability analysis method is proposed combining the response surface - Monte Carlo method and the nonlinear finite element method, where the uncertainty of parameters, such as material mechanical properties and corrosion, is taken into account. The results of a warship show that reasonable selection of the design points will not only reduce the calculation workload, but also ensure the fitting accuracy of response surfaces. The probability distribution of ultimate strength of over-service warships is close to the normal distribution or logarithmic normal distribution. The method proposed in this study is useful for the ultimate strength assessment of over-service warships.