灰色GM(1,1)模型在大型三甲医院主要医疗业务指标预测中的应用

The Application of Gray GM(1,1)Model in the Prediction of Medical Service Indicators in a Three A and Tertiary Hospitals

目的应用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测某院门急诊人次、出院人次、手术台次等主要医疗业务指标,为某院十四五规划提供参考。方法收集医院2010年1月1日-2019年12月31日门急诊人次、出院人次、手术台次等主要医疗业务指标,采用MATLAB 2012a软件进行拟合预测。结果近10年间某院门急诊人次、出院人次、手术台次,年均增长率分别为8.06%、17.00%、10.26%;门急诊人次、出院人次和手术台次3个变量拟合的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型拟合等级均为优,-a均≤0.3,适用于长期预测,平均误差分别为4.00%、1.40%、4.70%,均在5%以内。结论灰色GM(1,1)模型能够较好的拟合某院门急诊人次、出院人次、手术台次等主要医疗业务指标变化趋势,可为医院十四五规划提供依据。

Objectives To apply the gray GM(1,1)model to predict the number of outpatients and emergency department,the number of discharges,the number of operating tables and other major medical business indicators of a hospital,so as to provide reference for the hospital’s 14 th Five-Year Plan.Methods The main medical business indicators of the hospital from January 1st,2010 to December 31st,2019,such as the number of outpatients and emergency,the number of discharges,and the number of operating tables,were collected,and MATLAB 2012 a software was used for fitting prediction.Results The average annual growth rate of outpatient and emergency visits,discharges,and operating tables in recently ten years were 8.06%,17.00%,and 10.26%,respectively;3 outpatient and emergency visits,discharges and operating tables The gray GM(1,1)prediction model fitting grades of variable fitting are all excellent,-a are all ≤0.3,suitable for long-term forecasting,and the average errors are 4.00%,1.40%,4.70%,all within 5%.Conclusions The gray GM(1,1)model could better fit the change trend of major medical business indicators such as the number of outpatient and emergency department,the number of discharges,the number of operating tables in a hospital,and could provide a basis for the hospital’s 14th Five-Year Plan.