从萨伊定律到需求侧管理:解放被束缚的消费

From Say’s Law to Demand-Side Management:Unleashing Consumption

本文从外贸、投资、消费三个维度分析需求侧的变化趋势和改革方向,并对供给如何反哺需求进行探讨。本文认为,供给侧应从要素数量的投入转变为全要素生产率和人力资本的提升;需求侧应以提振最终消费为主体,同时降低对进口中间品和外部市场的依赖,优化贸易结构以增加附加值,推动城市群建设以形成规模报酬,提升投资效率;能否实现需求侧的变革,根本还是取决于能否建立公平、有序、正义和良序竞争性的市场秩序。

This paper analyzes the changing demand trend and the direction of reform from the perspectives of foreign trade,investment and consumption.It also examines how supply feeds back into demand.This article contends that the focus on the supply side should shift from quantitative increases in factor inputs to boosting total factor productivity and human capital.On the demand side the focus should be on boosting final consumption,while reducing dependence on imported intermediate products and external markets as well as optimizing the trade structure to increase added value.The strategy also entails promoting the construction of urban agglomerations to create economies of scale and improve investment efficiency.Whether demand-side changes can be realized ultimately depends on whether a fair,orderly,just,and well-ordered competitive market order can be established.