拜登政府南海政策的调整方向与限度

The Focus and Limits of Biden Administration’s South China Sea Policy

美国特朗普政府将南海作为中美战略竞争的重要抓手,强化美国在南海地区军事存在、围绕"南海仲裁案"挑拨离间图谋影响地区规则和加大对东盟国家外交拉拢。拜登政府在南海问题上对华战略竞争总基调不变,但具体手段上将转为构建"竞争为主调+合作"并存的双边关系、调整美军地区部署战略和战术、避免单打独斗、突出借力欧洲盟友实现对华"再平衡"。囿于错综复杂关系,美国南海政策的实施与结果将受到南海域内国家、域外大国和美国自身能力等因素制约。但作为一张牌,美国利用南海问题牵制中国的作用会进一步上升。

The Trump administration regards the South China Sea as an important tool for Sino-US strategic competition,focusing on strengthening the US military presence in the South China Sea,shaping regional rules based on the South China Sea Arbitration Award,and enhancing diplomatic ties with the ASEAN countries.The tension in the South China Sea continued to rise during the Trump administration and reached its peak during the COVID-19 pandemic.The Biden administration will inherit the general tone of strategic competition with China in the South China Sea,but the specific means will be to build a bilateral relationship where competition and cooperation coexist,adjust the U.S.military’s regional deployment strategies and tactics,and highlight the use of European allies to achieve the rebalance against China.The implementation of its policies will be restricted by factors such as countries in the South China Sea,major powers outside the region,and the United States’own capabilities.