基于网络舆情综合研判的社会安全事件预警研究

Early Warning of Social Security Incidents Based on Comprehensive Research and Judgment of Internet Public Opinion

[目的/意义]旨在为社会安全事件预警及防控提供参考。[方法/过程]对网络舆情和社会安全事件预警的研究现状进行梳理,从网络舆情对社会安全事件形成的影响入手,分析网络舆情综合研判方法对社会安全事件预警工作带来的优势,通过模糊层次综合评价法和ABC分类法对预警指标体系与等级进行完善与评估。[结果/结论]构建了基于网络舆情信息综合研判的社会安全事件风险预警指标体系,并提出加强网络舆情的监测与共享、完善舆情监测基础建设、加强舆情信息关联分析等建议。

[Purpose/significance]The paper aims to provide reference for early warning and prevention of social security incidents.[Method/process]The paper reviews the current research status of cyber public opinion and social security incident warning.Starting from the influence of cyber public opinion on the formation of social security incidents,the paper analyzes the advantages of comprehensive research and judgment methods of cyber public opinion on social security incident early warning,and uses fuzzy AHP comprehensive evaluation method and ABC classification method to improve and evaluate the early warning index system and level.[Result/conclusion]The paper constructs the risk early warning index system of social security events based on the comprehensive research and judgment of network public opinion information,and puts forward some suggestions,such as strengthening the monitoring and sharing of network public opinion,improving the infrastructure of public opinion monitoring,and strengthening the correlation analysis of public opinion information.