FDI、技术创新与城镇化互动关系研究——基于省际面板数据的PVAR实证分析

Research on the Relationship Between FDI,Technological Innovation and Urbanization——An empirical test based on PVAR model

为了探究FDI、技术创新与城镇化之间的关系,通过对FDI、技术创新与城镇化两两之间的影响机制进行分析,基于2005-2018年省际面板数据,运用PVAR模型分析了 FDI、技术创新与城镇化三者之间的互动关系.结果显示:在最佳滞后阶数3阶,三个变量滞后一、二、三阶且分别为被解释变量的情况下,FDI对城镇化具有正向效应,对技术创新影响表现为先促进后抑制;技术创新对城镇化的影响表现为"显著抑制—抑制—促进",对FDI先显著抑制后促进;城镇化对FDI与技术创新的影响表现为先促进后抑制,均不显著.并依据分析结果提出了促进FDI、技术创新以及推动城镇化发展的相关建议.

In order to explore the relationship between FDI,technological innovation and urbanization,through the analysis of the impact mechanism between FDI,technological innovation and urbanization,based on the 2005-2018 provincial panel data,and explores the interaction among FDI,technological innovation and urbanization by using pvar model.The results show that:when the optimal lag order is 3,the three variables lag one,two and three,and they are the explained variables respectively,FDI has a positive effect on urbanization,and the impact on technological innovation is first promotion and then inhibition;the impact of technological innovation on urbanization is "significant inhibition inhibition promotion",The impact of urbanization on FDI and technological innovation is not significant.Based on the analysis results,it puts forward relevant suggestions for promoting FDI,technological innovation and promoting the development of urbanization.