双边网络冲突结果与相对网络能力强弱相关性研究——基于双边网络事件争端数据库和贝尔弗国家网络能力指数2020

On Correlation Between Inter-state Cyber Conflict Results and Relative Cyber Capability—Based on Dyadic Cyber Incident Compaign Dataset and National Cyber Power Index 2020

[目的/意义]正确认识与量化网络空间“非对称进攻优势”,防止泛化的网络威胁对网络空间发展与合作造成负面影响,为我国顺利实现以信息技术为核心的新基建提供基本参考。[方法/过程]引入双边网络事件与争端数据库和“贝尔弗国家网络能力指数2020”,根据有关变量将网络冲突分为通用信息系统网络冲突和专用控制系统网络冲突两类,分别统计频数、占比和网络进攻成功率,并结合攻守双方网络能力相对强弱,计算出双边网络冲突结果与相对网络能力强弱的相关性系数。[结果/结论]2000-2016年,通用信息系统内存在较为显著的“非对称进攻优势”,但是在跨越通用信息系统边界时则有充分的理由怀疑“非对称进攻优势”得到一定程度的衰减,但在专用控制系统持续信息化的过程中,这些衰减可能逐渐得到恢复。在推进工业互联网建设时既不能过分夸大安全威胁而踌躇不前,也不能忽视潜在的风险来源而盲目乐观。

[Purpose/Significance]To correctly understand and quantify the"asymmetric offensive advantage"of cyberspace,preventing the negative impact of generalized cyber threats on the development and cooperation of cyberspace,to provide a basic reference for developing information technology within the struct of new infrastructure construction.[Method/Process]By introducing the dyadic cyber incident and campaign dataset(DCID)and national cyber power index 2020,cyber conflicts are divided into general information system based cyber conflicts and custom-built control system based cyber conflicts according to relevant variables.The frequency,proportion and cyber attack success rate are counted respectively.Combined with the cyber power index of both sides,the correlation coefficient of dyadic cyber incident results and relative cyber capability strength are calculated respectively.[Result/Conclusion]Between 2000 and 2016,There is indeed a significant"asymmetric attack advantage"in the general information system,but there are reasons to doubt whether the significance would be kept when it crosses the boundary of the general information system.As informatization of custom-built control system,the difference between them would be narrow.When promoting the construction of the industrial Internet,we can neither overstate the security threat,nor ignore the potential risk sources and be blindly optimistic.